Europe’s migration crisis is hurtling towards a potentially defining turning point this month, with the pillars of the EU’s policy under sustained assault and German chancellor Angela Merkel facing the first electoral test of her refugee policy. EU leaders are preparing for emergency migration summits on 7, 17, and 18 March against the backdrop of desperate scenes at the Greece-Macedonia border, where migrants have been beaten back with tear gas. Four crucial components of Europe’s migration response are at stake: the centrepiece effort to stem irregular migration from Turkey; the capacity of Greece to cope with tens of thousands of migrants trapped on its territory; the willingness of Europe to unite behind a common policy; and the political patience remaining in Germany, the main destination for migrants reaching Europe. Intense diplomacy over the next fortnight may dictate whether the EU is able to get a grip or fracture and fall back on national defences against an expected influx this spring and summer.