Displaying items by tag: Ukraine

Ukraine has reportedly used British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets in Russia's Kursk region. These long-range missiles, capable of striking targets nearly 200 miles away, mark a significant escalation in Ukraine's defence capabilities. The missiles were supplied under a policy shift allowing the use of British and US military equipment within Russian territory. However, experts warn their impact may be limited due to Ukraine's small stockpile. Military analysts suggest the missiles have already been used for strategic strikes on logistics hubs and ammunition depots. Meanwhile, tensions escalate as Russia lowered its threshold for using nuclear weapons following the US's similar policy shift. Critics fear this could spark wider conflict. On the one thousandth day of Putin’s invasion, the UK announced extra support for Ukraine with funding to provide new drone capabilities. See also and Europe article ‘Biden’s decision on missiles’.

Joe Biden’s long-awaited decision to allow Ukraine to use American missiles against Russian territory comes amid significant Russian territorial gains in 2024. One study shows that Russia has captured nearly 2,700 sq km of Ukrainian land this year - six times its 2023 gains. This aggressive push has strained Ukraine’s defences, despite Kyiv’s efforts to repel attacks. The destruction is immense, and Ukraine’s stretched defensive lines are increasingly vulnerable. The surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region initially boosted morale but is now faltering, with Russian forces reclaiming nearly 50% of lost territory. Analysts suggest that the incursion may have led to a broader strategic miscalculation, tying down its best troops and advanced equipment without significantly slowing Russia’s eastern advances. Meanwhile, the approaching second Trump administration casts uncertainty over US military support for Ukraine, raising fears of reduced aid as the war continues.

The reelection of Donald Trump could significantly impact US support for Ukraine as the war with Russia continues. Throughout his campaign, Trump expressed doubts about the USA’s ongoing commitment to Kyiv, suggesting the possibility of pressuring Ukraine into a truce with Russia. This comes at a critical time; Russia is making advances in the Donbas region, and North Korean troops are reportedly bolstering Russian forces. The Biden administration has provided tens of billions in military and financial aid to Ukraine, but Trump has often praised Vladimir Putin and criticised Volodymyr Zelensky. He has claimed that the war would not have started under his presidency, and has promised to end the conflict swiftly. Zelensky, who was quick to congratulate Trump on his victory, must be concerned about the potential implications for his beleaguered country: American military aid to Ukraine currently accounts for 43% of the total.

Arriving for the latest BRICS summit, Narendra Modi has told Vladimir Putin that India desires peace in Ukraine and is willing to assist in achieving a ceasefire. Putin has used the BRICS platform to highlight the non-Western world’s influence, despite efforts by the West to isolate Russia. BRICS is an intergovernmental organization comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The summit, involving leaders from 22 nations, including China’s president Xi Jinping, altogether represents 45% of the world's population and 35% of its economy. This showcases BRICS' growing global significance, a welcome boost for Putin. When asked about the prospects for peace, he claimed that the West had now realised that Russia would be victorious, but he was open to peace talks based on the ceasefire agreements reached in Istanbul in April 2022. One Russian source stressed that much depended on the result of the US presidential election on 5 November.

South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol has vowed that his government ‘won’t sit idle’ following reports that North Korea has sent three thousand troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. In a meeting with the Polish president, Yoon said that this deployment violates UN resolutions and threatens global security. South Korea’s spy agency says North Korea aims to send up to ten thousand troops to Russia by the end of 2024, though both Moscow and Pyongyang deny the claims. In response, Yoon indicated that South Korea is preparing diplomatic, economic, and military countermeasures in collaboration with allies, including possibly providing Ukraine with weapons systems. While South Korea has so far only supplied Ukraine with non-lethal aid, the situation may prompt a shift in policy. Tensions in the Korean peninsula have intensified as North Korea has reportedly used Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity to enhance its nuclear and missile programmes. The two leaders also discussed expanding defence cooperation, including new arms deals for Polish military upgrades. See

Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed optimism that the current battlefield dynamics could create a chance to end Russia’s invasion by 2025. Speaking at a summit meeting in Dubrovnik, Croatia, he highlighted the importance of Ukraine’s allies, particularly the USA, in achieving peace and long-term stability. He noted that October, November, and December present ‘a real chance’ for decisive action, but did not explain how that would happen. Russian forces now hold nearly 20% of Ukraine's territory, and are closing in on another key town, Toretsk. Zelensky also called for Ukraine’s integration into NATO as a means to strengthen its position in any potential negotiations with Russia. At the time of writing he is in London, to meet Keir Starmer and Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, and will then fly to Rome to meet Pope Francis.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has sharply criticised Hungary's foreign policies, accusing Viktor Orban of endangering European security. In a speech to the European parliament, she took aim at Hungary's reluctance to support Ukraine in its war with Russia and its growing relationships with Russia and China. She said that Orban's government is weakening EU unity by easing visa restrictions for Russians and Belarusians, and allowing Chinese police to operate in Hungary. Von der Leyen also stressed the dangers of Hungary’s continued reliance on Russian energy and its failure to align with EU energy security measures. Orban, in response, defended his policies, calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine and rejecting any comparison between Ukraine's current situation and Hungary’s 1956 uprising against Soviet rule.

Russia has captured the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar, a significant blow to Ukraine as it faces its third wartime winter. Russian soldiers have raised their flag over the devastated town, once home to 14,000 people but now reduced to just over a hundred. Ukraine’s military confirmed their withdrawal, citing the threat of encirclement as Russian reinforcements arrived: their manpower advantage had finally broken Ukraine’s fierce resistance.The town sits at a crucial junction of Ukraine’s eastern and southern fronts: Ukraine now has to fight to stop the Russians advancing further west, making the prospect of retaking territory even more remote. This comes just after Volodymyr Zelensky's return from the USA, where he secured aid but not the security guarantees he sought. With Ukraine’s energy infrastructure still under attack, the coming winter will test its resilience even further.

France, Germany, and the UK have introduced new sanctions on Iran for supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, which US secretary of state Antony Blinken said  will be used against Ukraine. The sanctions include restrictions on Iran Air and travel bans on military officials. UK foreign secretary David Lammy described Iran's actions as ‘a dangerous escalation’. Several individuals and organisations involved in the supply of the missiles face sanctions, and Russian cargo ships transporting these supplies have also been targeted. The Western nations have demanded that Iran halt its missile deliveries, citing security threats to Europe. Blinken and Lammy also flew to Ukraine to ‘hear directly from the leadership’ about their objectives. Volodymyr Zelensky has asked for authorisation to use Western-supplied missiles to strike targets inside Russia - a move the USA has so far resisted. Russia continues to make advances in eastern Ukraine.

This week has seen intensified Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and steady Russian advances in the Donbas region, balanced by Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region. Diplomatically, both sides continue to show a lack of willingness to compromise. China has reaffirmed its support for Russia through a high-profile visit by premier Li Qiang and a military delegation to Moscow. Meanwhile, India's prime minister Narendra Modi has made a significant visit to Kyiv, signalling India's complex position between its historical ties with Russia and growing relationships with Western nations. Although India has not condemned Russia's actions, Modi's visit to Ukraine and his emphasis on dialogue indicate a potential shift in India's stance. The USA also announced a new military aid package and additional sanctions targeting entities supporting Russia. The diplomatic landscape remains fluid, with all parties manoeuvring for strategic advantage on the global stage.