Displaying items by tag: turmoil

2019 saw Felix Tshisekedi elected president in disputed elections marred by violence. Ethnic tensions between Lendu and Mema saw 1,000+ deaths and another 1,300+ abducted or kidnapped, while the Ebola crisis took more lives. 2019 is being violently repeated in 2020. On 22 July authorities started cracking down on peaceful critics, journalists, and political party members using pandemic emergency measures as a pretext to curb political protests(see). Since 13 July hundreds have been demonstrating for the dissolution of parliament. This has been organised by the Catholic Church (see). Authorities are attempting to contain several health crises: coronavirus, the largest measles outbreak in the world, and two Ebola epidemics (see). Also rural violence is escalating: a Christian worker writes, ‘The route from Aru to Bunia is still not safe. If people want to reach Bunia they are accompanied by soldiers. But those who were killed last time were accompanied by soldiers who were also killed.’

With their country in turmoil, both Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó claim to be president, and neither has any incentive to back down. Guaidó has huge popular support, and is backed by many western powers (including the EU), but has little control over the levers of power. Although Maduro is still backed by allies such as Russia, Turkey, and Cuba, he is under unprecedented international pressure. Military top brass still support him, but there have been defections by junior officers. If he is to survive, he will need to keep the army loyal, which means finding a way to keep the ordinary soldiers paid. Another solution - but not one that would benefit ordinary people - is a military coup, but that might well mean a return to kleptocracy, mismanagement and authoritarianism. In any case, a change at the top would not placate the opposition, now emboldened and set on restoring democracy. Maduro has nothing to gain and everything to lose from stepping down, as he would probably be called to account for his authoritarian rule. Guaidó has promised an amnesty for any members of the armed forces who ‘contribute to the reestablishment of democratic order’. Another possibility, even if very unlikely, would appear to be outright conflict with the USA. Donald Trump, who publicly supports Guaidó, has just imposed sanctions on the country’s state-owned oil company.