Displaying items by tag: Election

YouGov's latest election model projects the Conservative Party winning just 108 seats, marking the lowest total in its history, and a 32-seat drop from just two weeks ago. Labour is set to gain 425 seats, a significant increase of 125 from the 2019 election, positioning them for a substantial majority. The model predicts that the SNP will become the second-largest Scottish party with 42 seats, and the Liberal Democrats will achieve their best-ever result with 67 seats. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is projected to secure five seats, while the Greens are set to win two seats. Labour's projected success extends across both urban and rural areas, notably becoming the largest party in traditionally Conservative regions such as the South East and South West. This dramatic shift potentially indicates a significant realignment in the political landscape, with the Conservatives facing unprecedented losses and Labour poised for a commanding parliamentary presence.

Over fifty charities and housing bodies have urged Rishi Sunak, Sir Keir Starmer, and Sir Ed Davey to prioritise ending homelessness by committing to building 90,000 social homes annually. With rough sleeping up 27% as of autumn 2023, these groups also demand housing benefits aligned with rising private rents. Signatories like Shelter and Crisis call for cross-party collaboration and long-term service funding. Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn condemned the absence of homelessness in party manifestos, questioning how 250,000 people can be homeless in a wealthy nation. Government data shows over 100,000 households in temporary accommodation, two-thirds being families with children. Liberal Democrat spokesperson Helen Morgan called the situation a national scandal, promising to end rough sleeping, increase social housing, and abolish no-fault evictions.

Trust and confidence in the UK’s political system have reached an all-time low, according to a report for the National Centre for Social Research. It reveals that a record number of voters almost never trust the Government to prioritise the country's interests over party politics or believe politicians to be truthful in challenging situations. Disillusionment, particularly among Brexit supporters, is cited as a significant factor, with Brexit not delivering the anticipated outcomes. Other contributors to this distrust include political scandals and the cost-of-living crisis, with those struggling financially expressing significant discontent. The report, entitled 'Damaged Politics’, shows that 45% of voters do not trust the Government to prioritise the country, 58% doubt politicians' honesty, and 79% believe the governance system requires substantial improvement. Additionally, 53% of respondents support a fairer voting system for smaller parties, highlighting dissatisfaction with the current first-past-the-post system. Public comments reflect a strong desire for truthful politicians and systemic reforms to restore trust and accountability.

Emmanuel Macron has said he intends to win the snap legislative election he called after his allies' significant defeat to Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) in the European Parliament elections. He has dismissed claims that dissolving parliament was reckless, potentially empowering the far right and hindering his domestic policy agenda. He stated that his decision was in France's best interests, and urged citizens to vote. The RN secured about 32% of the vote, compared to the 15% garnered by Macron's allies (almost the same percentage as the Socialists). However, he expressed confidence that a national election would be very different, pointing out that politics is dynamic and opinion polls are unreliable. He stated that the president's role is crucial for the republic, institutions,and Europe, and his position is secure regardless of the election outcome - even though the RN would probably call for his resignation if it won.

The Liberal Democrats have proposed free personal care for older or disabled individuals at home, alongside increased pay for care workers, aiming to alleviate the hospital crisis and enable people to remain in their homes. This plan, funded by reversing tax cuts for big banks, seeks to address the estimated £2.7bn cost by 2028-29. Independent experts suggest potential costs may exceed initial estimates. The party also aims to tackle the care worker shortage by introducing a carer's minimum wage and establishing a Royal College of Care Workers. Leader Sir Ed Davey, drawing from personal experience as a carer, emphasised the importance of this issue. The policy aims to support independence and dignity for individuals in need of care, echoing the system in Scotland. While welcomed by industry bodies, concerns remain about funding sufficiency and staffing shortages. Labour and the Conservatives have also proposed reforms to address healthcare and social care challenges.

As predicted before the elections, the African National Congress (ANC) has lost its parliamentary majority, securing only 40% of the vote. To govern, it needs a coalition partner or might attempt a minority government. It could partner with the Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 22% but is widely seen as aiming to protect white minority privileges. Alternatively, it could align with Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), which surprised many by gaining 15% of the vote, or Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF); a third alternative is a government of national unity. Cyril Ramaphosa insists any coalition must respect the current constitution: the ANC, EFF, and MK combined still fall short of the two-thirds majority needed for constitutional changes. The decision about what to do will have a major impact on South Africa, which faces major security and economic challenges.

Following the national elections, Narendra Modi is set to lose his parliamentary majority. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may need to form alliances to retain power. The current poll results suggest that while the BJP will remain the largest party, it might fall short of an outright majority, securing between 230-240 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament. This potential shortfall would force Modi to seek coalition partners to govern effectively - a significant shift from the 2014 and 2019 elections, where the BJP secured decisive victories. Despite his personal popularity, this result might reshape India's political landscape, making governance more complex and coalition-dependent​. He will find it challenging to maintain political dominance amid increasing economic and social challenges, including high unemployment and rural distress. Some fears have been expressed about his long-term future, and the Indian stock market has tumbled in value in response.

Claudia Sheinbaum, former mayor of Mexico City, has been elected as Mexico's first female president, with 58% of the vote. This strengthens the Morena party's control, following outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Despite concerns about Sheinbaum’s close ties to AMLO, both have insisted he will not influence her administration. She has committed to addressing Mexico's issues, particularly violence and security; the country is plagued by over 30,000 murders a year. During her tenure as mayor, the homicide rate in the capital dropped by 50%, credited to improved security measures. She plans to continue AMLO's strategy of non-confrontation with crime groups, relying on the national guard for security. Analysts expect Sheinbaum's presidency to be more disciplined and globally aware than AMLO's. However, the challenges she faces were highlighted when a female mayor was shot dead on 4 June.

American democracy faces a strange moment as Donald Trump, the leading Republican candidate, has been found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records. The verdict confirms that he altered financial accounts for his 2016 campaign, marking him as a convict. His murky past now seems to have caught up with him. On the other hand, it could be said that the district attorney, Alvin Bragg, combined tax misdemeanours into an indictment, and Judge Juan Merchan's aggressive behaviour has aroused suspicions. Describing it as a rigged trial, Trump has said, ‘Our country has gone to hell. The real verdict is going to be on 5 November by the people’. Democrats fear he might be right, as previous legal actions have boosted his popularity. His sentence, to be decided on 11 July, coincides with the Republican convention. In November we will find out whether Americans view Trump as a criminal or see Biden and his party as the real culprits.

The Labour Party has widened its lead over the Conservatives, according to a YouGov poll. The poll, conducted on 27 and 28 May with 2,128 adults, showed Labour at 47% and the Conservatives at 20%. This indicates no significant boost for the Tories following Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a general election for 4 July instead of waiting until autumn. The Conservatives face challenges in reuniting their 2019 voter base, with only 36% of those voters currently supporting them. Additionally, 19% of 2019 Tory voters would now choose Reform UK, 19% are undecided, and 14% would switch to Labour. Sunak announced the election after inflation fell to 2.3% in April, claiming his plan is effective. However, Labour criticised his apprenticeship policy while promoting their NHS backlog reduction plan, which includes additional appointments and doubling the number of scanners.