Russian state TV has broadcast footage of men confessing to a plot to carry out terror attacks on the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. The ‘saboteurs’ said they were acting on orders from Kiev. Ukraine denies any involvement and calls it ‘provocation’. Local residents reported hearing shots fired on Saturday night, when the Russian security service (FSB) says it intercepted the first group of men. An FSB statement described a second attempted incursion of Crimea accompanied by ‘massive fire from the neighbouring state and armoured vehicles of the Ukrainian armed forces’. No video or independent confirmation of that incident has yet emerged, so what actually took place remains a mystery. However, it is what happens next that matters most, as tensions between Moscow and Kiev rise to dangerous levels. Some say that the Russian military offensive is building as the US focuses on elections, the EU is distracted by Brexit, and the Olympic Games is a diversion.