After a US bombing campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, Donald Trump and US defence secretary Pete Hegseth offered conflicting assessments of its impact. At first, Trump claimed total obliteration, later suggesting the damage might have been ‘moderate’ or ‘severe’, while a leaked Pentagon assessment concluded the setback was only a matter of months. CIA director John Ratclife insisted that critical sites like Fordow had been rendered inoperable for years, while Israel announced that the strikes had pushed Iran’s programme back significantly. Meanwhile, questions emerged about Iran’s highly enriched uranium, some of which appears to have been moved prior to the attacks. The IAEA warned that different estimates of how long it will take Iran to rebuild distracted from the larger issue of long‑term non‑proliferation, and the risk of Iran expelling inspectors and leaving the non-proliferation treaty altogether.