The future of Syria is being debated between Iran, Russia and Turkey. Prominent on the agenda at a leaders’ meeting in Tehran on 7 Sept is Idlib, the remaining rebel-held province in Syria (population 1.5 million). Turkey, fearing a mass exodus of civilians towards its border, is trying to ensure the offensive will be as limited as possible. Most believe there are three scenarios. First, Turkey and Russia could agree to uphold the Idlib de-escalation zone if Turkey deals with the al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay'et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and persuades them to relocate elsewhere. This could avert a Russian attack on Idlib as long as a lasting peace is achieved in Syria. The second scenario would allow for a limited Russian-led military action in Idlib against HTS.  Given the high population density, Russia and Syria seem to be trying to avoid massive military attacks. The most feared scenario is Iran’s preference - an all-out offensive against Idlib. See