The over 70s and ‘clinically extremely vulnerable’ are now being called to vaccination appointments because of good progress being made. The vaccine program should lead to 'marked reductions' in deaths from early March. Excellent data from Israel records vaccinating 20% of the over-60s and two weeks later seeing a marked reduction in serious illness and deaths in that group. It is hoped that after mid-February we will see a marked reduction in death and serious illness. Because those most at risk of death are being prioritised for vaccination, hospital and death numbers could fall faster than case numbers. The vaccine deployment minister said that there are a lot of unknowns, and because of them he does not want to over-promise and under-deliver.