Displaying items by tag: Russia

NATIONAL SECURITY FOREIGN AFFAIRS UPDATE
OCTOBER 23, 2017 (REPORT #51)

Highlights:

• Cold War returns with nuclear-armed bombers on 24-hour alert
• CIA expands Taliban hunt
• ISIS battle converges in the Euphrates Valley
• Iraqi, Kurdish forces exchange fire at shared border
• U.S. Forces Korea ready with THAAD
• Russia complains U.S.-led coalition destroyed Raqqa like allies did the German city of Dresden in World War Two
• U.S. SEC State calls on Iran-backed militia to go home
• Iraq’s PM rejects Tillerson’s call for PMU to “go home”

CURRENT

• Cold War Returns with Nuclear-Armed Bombers on 24-hour alert.  DefenseOne reports the U.S. Air Force is preparing to put nuclear-armed bombers on 24-hour ready alert, something not seen since the end of the Cold War.  “This is yet one more step in ensuring that we’re prepared,” Gen. David Goldfein, Air Force chief of staff, said.  “I look at it more as not planning for any specific event, but more for the reality of the global situation we find ourselves in and how we ensure we’re prepared going forward.”  Putting the bomber fleet on alert is just one of many decisions facing the Air Force as the U.S. military responds to changing geopolitical environment that includes North Korea’s rapidly advancing nuclear arsenal as well as Russia’s increasingly potent and active armed forces.
• CIA expands Taliban hunt.  The New York Times reports the CIA is expanding its operations in Afghanistan, sending teams alongside Afghan forces to hunt Taliban jihadi.  The Times reports this is a shift for the CIA in that country, where it had focused on defeating al Qaeda and helping Afghan intelligence operatives.  The agency’s paramilitary division, which is taking on the mission, numbers only in the hundreds and is deployed all over the world.  The expanded mission reflects that agency’s assertive role under Mike Pompeo, the new director, to combat insurgents around the world.  Pompeo said “We can’t perform our mission if we’re not aggressive.  … This is unforgiving, relentless.  You pick the word.  Every minute, we have to be focused on crushing our enemies.”
• ISIS battle converges in the Euphrates Valley.  The Air Force Times reports the coalition’s fight with ISIS jihadi is now focused along a stretch of the Euphrates River Valley straddling the Syrian border.   ISIS no longer has a presence in cities such as Mosul, Tal Afar and Haditha.  Rather, U.S.-led coalition forces are focused on driving ISIS out of towns like al Qaim.   Air operations are “shaping” the battlefield by taking out weapons centers like car bomb factories and ISIS C3 centers.  Brig. Gen. Andrew Croft, deputy commanding general for Air, Combined Joint Forces Land Component Command, Operation Inherent Resolve, said “They’ll move against multiple areas in the Euphrates River Valley in a multi-axis operation.  The preponderance of ISIS forces, we believe, are in that area … essentially all the way out east to Rawa.”

CONSEQUENCES

• Iraqi, Kurdish forces exchange fire at shared border.  The Military Times reports Iraqi federal and Kurdish forces exchanged fire at their shared border on Friday, ending a week of conflict whereby Kurds returned control to Iraqi forces.  By mid-Friday, Iraq’s defense ministry said anti-terrorism forces used artillery against Kurdish forces in AltunKupri, a town in the Kurdish region.    Kurdish forces withdrew last week in most areas to positions they last held in 2014, restoring the map to the time before the rise of ISIS.
• U.S. Forces Korea ready with THAAD.  The Yonhap News Agency reports the U.S. Forces Korea set-up the unit charged with operating the advanced missile defense system deployed in that country.  On Thursday, a ceremony was held in Seongju to transfer the Delta Battery of the 11th Air Defense Artillery brigade to the 35th ADA Brigade in South Korea.  The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, which has missile launchers, command and control facilities and a powerful radar, was first deployed in April, but at that time there were only two interceptor launchers.  Four more launchers arrived last month.
• Russia complains U.S.-led coalition destroyed Raqqa like allies did the German city of Dresden in World War Two.  The BBC reports the Syrian Democratic Forces, a U.S.-backed alliance of Kurds and Arabs, destroyed Raqqa, and Moscow compared that result to the Allied destruction of the German city of Dresden in WW II.  Russia itself was accused of committing war crimes for bombarding Aleppo, Syria last year.  UN war crimes investigators in June that there had been a “staggering loss of civilian life” in Raqqa.  A Russian defense spokesman said “Raqqa has inherited the fate of Dresden in 1945, wiped off the face of the earth by Anglo-American bombardments.”
• U.S. SEC State calls on Iran-backed militia to go home.  The BBC reports U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called on Iran-backed militias fighting ISIS should leave northern Iraq as the battle is nearing its end.  Tillerson insists mopping up should be left to the Iraqis.   Iraqi forces have been fighting ISIS alongside Popular Mobilization Units, a coalition of Shia militia, backed by Iran.  Those units have been accused of abuses, including torture and killings, during the anti-ISIS operations in Iraq.
• Iraq’s PM rejects Tillerson’s call for PMU to “go home.”The media office of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on Oct. 23 criticized U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's recent statements that Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Units who helped Iraq fight the Islamic State should "go home," Reuters reported. According to Reuters, the prime minister's office said that "No party has the right to interfere in Iraqi matters."  

Pray – lets be in prayer over each of these very significant situations and pray as we are guided.

Robert Maginnis
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Over 250 supporters of opposition leader Aleksei Navalny were arrested as they held peaceful protests in eighty cities across Russia on Putin’s birthday. They were demanding that Mr Navalny be allowed to stand in the March 2018 presidential elections. He is currently jailed for organising public meetings, and the authorities say he cannot stand in the elections because of a suspended sentence. Amnesty International said, ‘The Russian authorities must immediately and unconditionally release scores of peaceful protesters detained, and investigate allegations that the police used abusive force. The Kremlin’s intent is to choke the life out of the protest movement, but it has also become clear that this reproachful goal cannot be achieved. Peaceful protest is a right, and many people in Russia want to exercise that right.’ See:

The UN has accused Russia of committing grave human rights violations in Crimea. There is a need for accountability. Russia annexed the peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, after that country's leader was overthrown. The UN report has documented random arrests, detentions, disappearances, torture, and at least one execution. There have been ‘intrusive law enforcement raids of private properties’, and the human rights situation has ‘significantly deteriorated’, with hundreds of prisoners illegally transferred from Crimea to Russian jails. Civil servants have been forced to renounce their Ukrainian citizenship or face losing their jobs, and Moscow has replaced Ukrainian laws with Russian ones. Education in Ukrainian has all but disappeared from Crimean schools. There was no immediate response from Russia to the report's accusations.

CBN News joined 46 Christians from Russia going to remote Mongolian provinces where few have heard of Christ's love. 17-year-old Alena Barsokov said, ‘What I am attempting to do is raise a new generation of Russian believers who will have an understanding of Christ's love for the world and the role they must play in bringing that Good News to the unreached.’ This is her third visit to Mongolia. She has wanted to be a missionary since the age of 9. Accompanying her was Natasha Gorodnuk, on her first trip. She wants to serve as a missionary to Nepal. ‘Every time I think about it, my heart breaks because I know the calling on my life and I know what I'm supposed to do,’ Natasha said. For several weeks Natasha, Alena and 44 other Russians partnered with Mongolian Christians to hold evangelistic camps for young people in remote regions of the country.

Over 180 individuals and communities have been taken to court since ‘anti-missionary’ punishments came into force on 20 July 2016. Forum 18's list of known cases documents the wide range of people and communities across Russia subjected to such punishments.  The 180+ cases were punished for ‘issuing or distribution, within the framework of missionary activity, of literature and printed, audio, and video material without a label bearing this name, or with an incomplete or deliberately false label.’ Both Russians and foreigners were punished under this law, some were fined, some were deported. Vladimir Putin approved this law in a package of anti-terrorism laws and despite prayers and protests from religious leaders and human rights advocates, the Kremlin passed laws against sharing faith in homes, online, or anywhere that is not a recognised church building.

Russia threatens power grids with cyber weapon.  The Washington Post reports hackers allied with the Russian government have devised a cyber-weapon that has the potential to be the most disruptive yet against electric systems that have the potential to disrupt all American lives.  The malware, which researchers have dubbed CrashOverride, is known to have disrupted only one energy system (Ukraine).  In that instance, the hackers shut down one-fifth of the power generated in Kiev.  Once modified the malware could be deployed against U.S. electric transmission and distribution systems to a devastating effect.   A cyber-security firm says the malware “is the culmination of over a decade of theory and attack scenarios.”  “It’s a game changer.” …Unfortunately the U.S. is slow addressing the threat and as a result is very vulnerable.

Russia stages 100,000 troops on NATO’s border.  Defense One reports Russia and Belarus are preparing for a military exercise on NATO’s flank.   Russia’s every-four-year joint exercise with Belarus, Zapad (“West”) 2017, simulates a full-scale conflict with the West.   Lithuania’s defense minister said “it’s not comfortable at all when we expect to have 100,000 troops around our borders.”   It is noteworthy the scheduled exercise will be the first since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.   Defense One reports several Baltic officials believe Russia may leave troops in Belarus after the exercise, something similar seen in past operations such as the Republic of Georgia, Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine conflict escalates.  Radio Free Europe reports the U.N. announced hostilities have been escalating in eastern Ukraine in recent months because parties to the armed conflict have “repeatedly failed to implement cease-fire agreements.”  The U.N. announcement said cease-fire violations on both Ukrainian armed forces and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine have allowed “hostilities to escalate and claim more live as the conflict moved into its fourth year.”    The conflict that started in mid-April 2014 has claimed 10,090 lives – including 2,777 civilians. Note: Russia fuels the conflict and will never back-down because Ukraine is the psychological birthplace of the Russian people.

Robert Lee Maginnis
https://www.facebook.com/RLMaginnis/

Pray that Russia will change its attitude and pull back from its aggressive actions on the border with NATO and in eastern Ukraine. Pray that a better relationship may develop with the USA and between presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

The European Union formally extended its economic sanctions on Russia on Wednesday, a widely-expected step that keeps restrictions on business with Russian energy, defence and financial sectors until 31 January 2018. The sanctions were imposed in July 2014 following Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Black Sea peninsula and Moscow's direct support for separatists in eastern Ukraine. Moscow denies direct involvement in the conflict, despite NATO's assertions that its troops are supporting the rebels. EU leaders agreed to the extension at their summit in Brussels last week, after France and Germany cited no progress in efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict in eastern Ukraine that has killed more than 10,000 people since April 2014. Under the sanctions that were imposed in tandem with the United States, European companies are banned from doing business with or investing in Russia's defence and energy industries, while financial ties are severely limited. European companies cannot borrow or lend money to Russia's five main state-owned banks for more than 30 days, limiting Moscow's avenues for raising funds. Any lifting of sanctions on Russia is tied to the implementation of the Minsk peace deal for Ukraine which was negotiated by the leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia in 2015.

A US fighter jet has blown up a pro-Syrian regime drone, just two days after the US brought down its first Syrian air force warplane. No matter how much Mr Trump personally hankers after better relations with the Russians, the downing of the Russian-made SU-22 on Sunday night has effectively killed any prospect of Washington and Moscow enjoying a new era of detente. The Russian response has been to threaten any coalition aircraft which enters airspace where its forces operate. Meanwhile, an armed Russian warplane flew within five feet of a US reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea in what US officials said was a ‘provocative and unsafe’ way. Tensions between the two powers were already running high after a bipartisan group of US Senators last week voted overwhelmingly to pass a bill that expands financial sanctions in retaliation for Russia’s interference in last year’s presidential contest, as well as Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.

The Russian media is repeatedly criticised for the use of misleading images, false narratives, misrepresentation, suppression and fabricated news stories when it comes to Ukraine. A regular claim has been that the Ukrainian army is committing ‘genocide’ against Russian-speakers who state that they strongly desire Russia to ‘protect’ them against Kiev. The media battle between the two countries has not gone away: neither has spasmodic cross-border fighting, regardless of ‘ceasefires’. On 15 May, a decree banned access to the country's most popular social networking sites and other Russian-based web businesses. This was described as a ‘national security measure’, part of economic sanctions against Russia, which annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and has sent weapons, equipment, and troops to support and fuel the separatist side in the war in eastern Ukraine.

Known as ‘Europe's last dictatorship,’ Belarus does not tolerate protest or dissent. Yet thousands protested in the streets over a controversial tax. These protests have gained significant momentum, even though 400+ have been detained and many beaten. A brewing conflict over the relationship between Belarus and Russia is spiraling downward, as the country moves away from Russia. Belarus is fragile and vulnerable at a pivotal moment in its history. But most importantly, increasing numbers of Belarusians are turning to Christ, even amid tight controls and increased persecution (source: Prayercast). In America Donald Trump hit back at tax protesters, asking who funded their demonstrations. English newspapers report the tide turning on the streets of the world’s capital cities. Hundreds of peaceful protesters were arrested in Moscow and St Petersburg, after unsanctioned demonstrations against corruption. Half a million Romanians forced their government to abandon a law pardoning corrupt officials after taking to the streets.