Russia’s unprecedented drone strikes on Poland on 9 September are framed as both a test and a warning to Europe and NATO. Moscow, adept at ‘salami-slicing’ escalation, is probing allied resolve with incremental provocations - from bombings in Kyiv to GPS jamming: each crossing a new line while eliciting mostly rhetoric. Similar tactics enabled the 2014 seizure of Crimea, and hitting Polish territory is a larger slice meant to measure the alliance’s willingness to honour Article 5. A direct military response is deemed unlikely, yet inaction risks projecting weakness and inviting the next escalation. Sanctions talk will grow, but prior rounds neither deterred invasion nor reversed it; energy sanctions that might bite remain politically constrained. The strikes also serve as a warning against deeper Western involvement in Ukraine: Russia’s deniable, ambiguous tactics could complicate any future allied deployment after a ceasefire. The core question: can NATO deter without stumbling into a wider war?